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Rezekne vs Tukums B Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Rezekne

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tukums B

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.7%0-26.2%0-35.4%0-4+6.6%1 1-02.5%1-16.6%1-28.6%1-37.5%1-4+9.2%2 2-01.8%2-14.6%2-26.0%2-35.3%2-4+6.5%3 3-00.8%3-12.2%3-22.8%3-32.5%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 29.4% 3.40 -15.7%

Draw 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -9.6%

Away win 57.3% 57.1% 1.75 +0.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 57.0% 45.5% 2.20 +25.4%

BTTS 62.5% 66.7% 1.50 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob62.5%

A 57% / xG 1.4-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 1–3 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.2%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rezekne1.4

Tukums B2.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REZEKNE · PPG 0.33

TUKUMS B · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.33), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Rezekne (H) 21.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.7%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.6%

Tukums B (A) 57.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rezekne face Tukums B in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rezekne a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Tukums B 57%, so Tukums B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rezekne and 2.6 for Tukums B (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rezekne are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Tukums B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 1-4.

Rezekne vs Tukums B Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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