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Deportivo Merlo vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Saturday, May 30, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. Laferrere

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-111.6%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.3%1-113.1%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-17.4%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.5%3-12.8%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 41.7% 2.40 +6.3%

Draw 30.6% 37.0% 2.70 -17.4%

Away win 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Over 2.5 34.0% 36.4% 2.75 -6.5%

Over 3.5 20.0% 18.2% 5.50 +6.0%

BTTS 47.2% 44.4% 2.25 +6.2%

Home O1.5 31.3% 30.8% 3.25 +1.7%

Away O1.5 19.3% 26.7% 3.75 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.1

D. Laferrere0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.67

D. LAFERRERE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.3%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.4%

D. Laferrere (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face D. Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 44% chance, the draw 31% and D. Laferrere 25%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Merlo and 0.8 for D. Laferrere (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for D. Laferrere. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Deportivo Merlo vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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