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Real Pilar vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 18:30

Real Pilar

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

UAI Urquiza

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.0%0-114.5%0-24.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-111.7%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.2%2-14.7%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.2%3-11.3%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 51.3% 1.95 -23.9%

Draw 36.5% 33.9% 2.95 +7.7%

Away win 24.6% 25.6% 3.90 -2.4%

Over 2.5 25.8% 35.1% 2.85 -15.9%

Over 3.5 12.5% 18.2% 5.50 -18.8%

BTTS 42.6% 42.6% 2.35 +0.1%

Home O1.5 19.4% 39.2% 2.55 -30.3%

Away O1.5 11.5% 22.2% 4.50 -28.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 39% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.0%

#2 1–0 20.2%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–1 14.5%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Pilar0.8

UAI Urquiza0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.25

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Real Pilar (H) 39.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -23.9%

Draw 36.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +7.7%

UAI Urquiza (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Pilar face UAI Urquiza in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Pilar a 39% chance, the draw 37% and UAI Urquiza 25%, so Real Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Real Pilar and 0.6 for UAI Urquiza (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Pilar are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for UAI Urquiza. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Real Pilar vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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