Today / Modern Sport vs El Gouna

Modern Sport vs El Gouna Prediction

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Modern Sport
PPG 1.18 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
El Gouna
PPG 1.58 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-113.7%0-27.5%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.1%2-16.7%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 32.2%
Draw 30.1%
Away win 37.7%
Over 2.5 34.5%
Over 3.5 15.8%
BTTS 41.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob41.7%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.7%
#2 1–1 13.5%
#3 0–0 12.5%
#4 1–0 12.3%
#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Modern Sport1.0
El Gouna1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 15.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MODERN SPORT · PPG 1.18

EL GOUNA · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.18) vs Away GOOD (1.58)

Win probability 1X2

Modern Sport (H) 32.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 30.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
El Gouna (A) 37.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Modern Sport face El Gouna on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Modern Sport a 32% chance, the draw 30% and El Gouna 38%, so El Gouna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Modern Sport and 1.1 for El Gouna (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Modern Sport are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.58 for El Gouna.

PredictVantage

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