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Lahti vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Lahti

PPG 1.25 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ilves

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.0%0-25.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.9%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.3%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.0%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 41.3% 2.42 -8.8%

Draw 27.1% 31.7% 3.15 -8.8%

Away win 35.2% 36.2% 2.76 -2.9%

Over 2.5 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Over 3.5 27.9% 27.4% 3.65 +1.1%

BTTS 55.3% 57.1% 1.75 -3.2%

Home O1.5 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

Away O1.5 32.9% 37.7% 2.65 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lahti1.3

Ilves1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHTI · PPG 1.25

ILVES · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Lahti (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -8.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -8.8%

Ilves (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lahti face Ilves in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lahti a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Ilves 35%, so Lahti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lahti and 1.2 for Ilves (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lahti are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.60 for Ilves. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 5-0.

Lahti vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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