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Gnistan vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Gnistan

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

SJK

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 37.3% — a clear edge.

+42.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.0%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.0%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.0%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.5%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 37.3% 2.68 +42.6%

Draw 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Away win 21.0% 42.0% 2.38 -30.0%

Over 2.5 46.3% 59.9% 1.67 -22.7%

Over 3.5 27.7% 37.7% 2.65 -16.0%

BTTS 47.2% 66.7% 1.50 -29.2%

Home O1.5 44.3% 45.5% 2.20 -2.5%

Away O1.5 18.5% 48.8% 2.05 -37.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gnistan1.5

SJK0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GNISTAN · PPG 1.50

SJK · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Gnistan (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +42.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.4%

SJK (A) 21.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gnistan face SJK in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gnistan a 53% chance, the draw 26% and SJK 21%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gnistan and 0.8 for SJK (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gnistan are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for SJK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Gnistan vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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