Today / Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Real Aviles vs Unionistas

Real Aviles vs Unionistas Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:15

Real Aviles

PPG 1.19 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Unionistas

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+31.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.3%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.4%1-19.0%1-26.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.5%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 42.9% 2.33 +24.0%

Draw 21.1% 31.3% 3.20 -32.5%

Away win 25.7% 35.7% 2.80 -28.0%

Over 2.5 67.5% 51.3% 1.95 +31.6%

Over 3.5 45.8% 29.9% 3.35 +53.4%

BTTS 65.9% 58.8% 1.70 +12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.9%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1✓ 9.0%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Aviles2.1

Unionistas1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL AVILES · PPG 1.19

UNIONISTAS · PPG 1.13

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Real Aviles (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +24.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -32.5%

Unionistas (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Aviles face Unionistas in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Aviles a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Unionistas 26%, so Real Aviles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Real Aviles and 1.4 for Unionistas (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Aviles are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.13 for Unionistas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +53.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Real Aviles vs Unionistas Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions