Real Aviles vs Unionistas Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Group 1 - 33 Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta· Avilés Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:15

Real Aviles PPG 1.19

1-1 HIT CS2

Unionistas PPG 1.13

Over3.5· +53.4% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Aviles face Unionistas in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Aviles a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Unionistas 26%, so Real Aviles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Real Aviles and 1.4 for Unionistas (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Aviles are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.13 for Unionistas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +53.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.2%

Odds: 2.33 EV: +24.0%

Draw 21.1%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -32.5%

Away 25.7%

Odds: 2.80 EV: -28.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.5% Odds: 1.95 +31.6%

Over 3.5 45.8% Odds: 3.35 +53.4%

BTTS 65.9% Odds: 1.70 +12.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Aviles

2.08

Unionistas

1.40

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +31.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+53.4%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -35.1%

Bet Hit 35% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.13)