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Neman Grodno vs ML Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Neman Grodno

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

ML Vitebsk

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.4%0-118.7%0-29.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.4%1-112.6%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.2%2-14.3%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.9%3-11.0%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 23.8% 4.20 -3.5%

Draw 32.5% 30.3% 3.30 +7.2%

Away win 45.2% 57.1% 1.75 -20.9%

Over 2.5 34.0% 50.8% 1.97 -33.0%

Over 3.5 18.6% 30.9% 3.24 -23.8%

BTTS 45.5% 54.1% 1.85 -15.8%

Home O1.5 14.7% 25.0% 4.00 -24.7%

Away O1.5 27.2% 53.2% 1.88 -29.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.5%

A 45% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.4%

#2 0–1 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neman Grodno0.7

ML Vitebsk1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEMAN GRODNO · PPG 2.00

ML VITEBSK · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Neman Grodno (H) 22.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.5%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +7.2%

ML Vitebsk (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neman Grodno face ML Vitebsk in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neman Grodno a 22% chance, the draw 33% and ML Vitebsk 45%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Neman Grodno and 1.0 for ML Vitebsk (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neman Grodno are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 3.00 for ML Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Neman Grodno vs ML Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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