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Vozdovac vs Loznica Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Championship Group - 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Vozdovac

PPG 1.93 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Loznica

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+30.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-14.4%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.2%1-18.0%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.7%2-17.4%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.9%3-14.5%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-13.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.2% 55.6% 1.80 +30.0%

Draw 20.2% 34.5% 2.90 -41.4%

Away win 7.6% 22.7% 4.40 -66.6%

Over 2.5 39.4% — — —

Over 3.5 19.3% — — —

BTTS 28.8% 45.5% 2.20 -36.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob28.8%

H 72% / xG 1.8-0.4 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 2–0 17.7%

#3 3–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vozdovac1.8

Loznica0.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VOZDOVAC · PPG 1.93

LOZNICA · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vozdovac (H) 72.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +30.0%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -41.4%

Loznica (A) 7.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -66.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vozdovac face Loznica in Serbia - Prva Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vozdovac a 72% chance, the draw 20% and Loznica 8%, so Vozdovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vozdovac and 0.4 for Loznica (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vozdovac are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.00 for Loznica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Vozdovac vs Loznica Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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