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Graficar vs T. Odzaci Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Graficar

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

T. Odzaci

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.5%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.7%1-113.1%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.3%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 55.6% 1.80 -26.0%

Draw 32.5% 31.3% 3.20 +4.0%

Away win 26.4% 24.4% 4.10 +8.2%

Over 2.5 38.2% 44.4% 2.25 -14.1%

Over 3.5 18.4% 25.0% 4.00 -26.4%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.2%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–1✓ 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Graficar1.3

T. Odzaci1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GRAFICAR · PPG 1.47

T. ODZACI · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Graficar (H) 41.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -26.0%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.0%

T. Odzaci (A) 26.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Graficar face T. Odzaci in Serbia - Prva Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Graficar a 41% chance, the draw 33% and T. Odzaci 26%, so Graficar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Graficar and 1.0 for T. Odzaci (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Graficar are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.38 for T. Odzaci. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Graficar vs T. Odzaci Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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