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Vozdovac vs Zemun Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Championship Group - 33 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:00

Vozdovac

PPG 1.81 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zemun

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.9%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.4%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 46.5% 2.15 +3.4%

Draw 29.4% 36.4% 2.75 -19.1%

Away win 22.5% 30.8% 3.25 -26.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.4% — — —

BTTS 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vozdovac1.6

Zemun0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VOZDOVAC · PPG 1.81

ZEMUN · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Vozdovac (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +3.4%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -19.1%

Zemun (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vozdovac face Zemun in Serbia - Prva Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vozdovac a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Zemun 23%, so Vozdovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vozdovac and 0.8 for Zemun (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vozdovac are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.73 for Zemun. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Vozdovac vs Zemun Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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