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Borac 1926 vs Graficar Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 35 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 15:00

Borac 1926

PPG 1.47 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Graficar

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.4%0-114.8%0-25.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.0%1-113.0%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.5%2-15.7%2-22.2%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.7%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 54.6% 1.83 -31.0%

Draw 35.5% 31.3% 3.20 +13.6%

Away win 26.7% 25.6% 3.90 +2.5%

Over 2.5 35.1% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

Over 3.5 8.5% 25.0% 4.00 -39.6%

BTTS 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.9%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.4%

#2 1–0 17.0%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 14.8%

#5 2–0✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Borac 19260.9

Graficar0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BORAC 1926 · PPG 1.47

GRAFICAR · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Borac 1926 (H) 37.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -31.0%

Draw 35.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +13.6%

Graficar (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Borac 1926 face Graficar in Serbia - Prva Liga on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Borac 1926 a 38% chance, the draw 36% and Graficar 27%, so Borac 1926 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Borac 1926 and 0.8 for Graficar (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Borac 1926 are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.13 for Graficar. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Borac 1926 vs Graficar Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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