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Dubocica vs FAP Priboj Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 35 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 15:00

Dubocica

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FAP Priboj

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.1%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.2%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Draw 26.6% 30.8% 3.25 -8.1%

Away win 25.5% 26.3% 3.80 -1.9%

Over 2.5 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Over 3.5 24.8% 26.5% 3.78 -3.8%

BTTS 52.3% 52.4% 1.91 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dubocica1.5

FAP Priboj1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUBOCICA · PPG 1.50

FAP PRIBOJ · PPG 0.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=48.0%

Win probability 1X2

Dubocica (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.1%

FAP Priboj (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dubocica face FAP Priboj in Serbia - Prva Liga on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dubocica a 48% chance, the draw 27% and FAP Priboj 26%, so Dubocica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dubocica and 1.0 for FAP Priboj (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dubocica are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.65 for FAP Priboj. This match finished 1-1.

Dubocica vs FAP Priboj Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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