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FAP Priboj vs Kabel Novi Sad Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 36 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 15:00

FAP Priboj

PPG 1.12 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Kabel Novi Sad

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-112.5%0-26.6%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.7%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.8%2-17.3%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.5%3-12.6%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 50.5% 1.98 -28.5%

Draw 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -6.5%

Away win 34.2% 27.4% 3.65 +24.8%

Over 2.5 45.4% 41.7% 2.40 +9.0%

Over 3.5 16.9% 22.7% 4.40 -15.4%

BTTS 49.7% 47.6% 2.10 +4.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.7%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FAP Priboj1.1

Kabel Novi Sad1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FAP PRIBOJ · PPG 1.12

KABEL NOVI SAD · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

FAP Priboj (H) 36.1%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -28.5%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.5%

Kabel Novi Sad (A) 34.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FAP Priboj face Kabel Novi Sad in Serbia - Prva Liga on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FAP Priboj a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Kabel Novi Sad 34%, so FAP Priboj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FAP Priboj and 1.1 for Kabel Novi Sad (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FAP Priboj are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.22 for Kabel Novi Sad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 1-2.

FAP Priboj vs Kabel Novi Sad Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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