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Dubocica vs Kabel Novi Sad Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 33 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:00

Dubocica

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kabel Novi Sad

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.1%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.9%1-110.8%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 59.9% 1.67 -17.0%

Draw 28.5% 31.3% 3.20 -8.8%

Away win 21.8% 21.1% 4.75 +3.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 25.0% — — —

BTTS 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dubocica1.8

Kabel Novi Sad0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DUBOCICA · PPG 1.53

KABEL NOVI SAD · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Dubocica (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -17.0%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.8%

Kabel Novi Sad (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dubocica face Kabel Novi Sad in Serbia - Prva Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dubocica a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Kabel Novi Sad 22%, so Dubocica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dubocica and 0.8 for Kabel Novi Sad (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dubocica are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.13 for Kabel Novi Sad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Dubocica vs Kabel Novi Sad Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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