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Macva Sabac vs Vozdovac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Championship Group - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:00

Macva Sabac

PPG 2.47 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Vozdovac

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-110.7%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-18.1%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

Draw 31.9% 33.3% 3.00 -4.3%

Away win 31.5% 27.8% 3.60 +13.4%

Over 2.5 41.6% 40.0% 2.50 +4.0%

Over 3.5 21.0% 20.0% 5.00 +5.0%

BTTS 49.6% 45.5% 2.20 +9.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.6%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0✓ 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macva Sabac1.2

Vozdovac1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MACVA SABAC · PPG 2.47

VOZDOVAC · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.47) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Macva Sabac (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -26.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.3%

Vozdovac (A) 31.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macva Sabac face Vozdovac in Serbia - Prva Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macva Sabac a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Vozdovac 32%, so Macva Sabac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Macva Sabac and 1.1 for Vozdovac (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macva Sabac are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.88 for Vozdovac. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Macva Sabac vs Vozdovac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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