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T. Odzaci vs Kabel Novi Sad Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Relegation Group - 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

T. Odzaci

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kabel Novi Sad

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-14.3%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.3%1-18.8%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-19.0%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.1%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-15.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.1% 65.4% 1.53 +8.8%

Draw 18.9% 28.6% 3.50 -33.9%

Away win 10.0% 18.2% 5.50 -45.0%

Over 2.5 49.6% 44.4% 2.25 +11.6%

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 39.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.9%

H 71% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Odzaci2.0

Kabel Novi Sad0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

T. ODZACI · PPG 1.07

KABEL NOVI SAD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

T. Odzaci (H) 71.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +8.8%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -33.9%

Kabel Novi Sad (A) 10.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -45.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Odzaci face Kabel Novi Sad in Serbia - Prva Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Odzaci a 71% chance, the draw 19% and Kabel Novi Sad 10%, so T. Odzaci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for T. Odzaci and 0.6 for Kabel Novi Sad (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Odzaci are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.00 for Kabel Novi Sad. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 1-2.

T. Odzaci vs Kabel Novi Sad Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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