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Arsenal D. vs Dinamo Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Arsenal D.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dinamo Minsk

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 47% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+16.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-111.8%0-29.1%0-34.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.0%2-16.2%2-24.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 10.0% 10.00 +76.2%

Draw 26.7% 25.6% 3.90 +2.5%

Away win 50.5% 75.2% 1.33 -32.8%

Over 2.5 49.6% 52.4% 1.91 -5.3%

Over 3.5 29.1% 33.4% 2.99 -7.8%

BTTS 51.9% 44.4% 2.25 +16.8%

Home O1.5 27.3% 13.2% 7.60 +64.5%

Away O1.5 45.7% 63.7% 1.57 -28.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.9%

A 50% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1✓ 11.8%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal D.1.0

Dinamo Minsk1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL D. · PPG 1.75

DINAMO MINSK · PPG 2.60

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

47%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal D. (H) 22.7%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +76.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.5%

Dinamo Minsk (A) 50.5%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal D. face Dinamo Minsk in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal D. a 23% chance, the draw 27% and Dinamo Minsk 51%, so Dinamo Minsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Arsenal D. and 1.5 for Dinamo Minsk (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal D. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.60 for Dinamo Minsk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +76.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Arsenal D. vs Dinamo Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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