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Gute vs Helges Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 10:30

Gute

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Helges

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-18.2%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.4%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-17.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 75.8% 1.32 -24.2%

Draw 21.4% 21.3% 4.70 +0.4%

Away win 21.2% 16.4% 6.10 +17.6%

Over 2.5 60.1% 76.9% 1.30 -21.9%

Over 3.5 37.0% 56.2% 1.78 -34.1%

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 67.4% — — —

Away O1.5 19.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 57% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 9.1%

#5 1–0✓ 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gute2.3

Helges0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUTE · PPG 1.25

HELGES · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Gute (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -24.2%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +0.4%

Helges (A) 21.2%

ODDS 6.10 · IMPLIED 16.4% EV +17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gute face Helges in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gute a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Helges 21%, so Gute are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Gute and 0.8 for Helges (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gute are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Helges. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Gute vs Helges Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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