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Marconi S. vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 09:00

Marconi S.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Rockdale

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.5%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.6%1-16.8%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.1%2-19.0%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-18.0%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-110.2%4+-24.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 63.7% 1.57 +0.9%

Draw 20.8% 25.3% 3.95 -10.7%

Away win 14.9% 20.8% 4.80 -17.1%

Over 2.5 64.1% 65.4% 1.53 -1.9%

Over 3.5 43.1% 43.5% 2.30 -0.9%

BTTS 55.3% 64.5% 1.55 -14.3%

Home O1.5 74.4% 67.6% 1.48 +10.1%

Away O1.5 22.5% 34.7% 2.88 -21.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.3%

H 64% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.2.7

Rockdale0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 3.00

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.43

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +0.9%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -10.7%

Rockdale (A) 14.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face Rockdale in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Rockdale 15%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Marconi S. and 0.9 for Rockdale (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.43 for Rockdale. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Marconi S. vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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