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Logan Lightning vs Holland Park H. Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Saturday, May 30, 2026, 08:30

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Holland Park H.

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.6%0-23.7%0-32.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-03.6%1-17.2%1-27.3%1-34.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.6%2-17.2%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.4%3-14.8%3-24.9%3-33.3%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.8%4+-23.9%4+-32.6%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 55.6% 1.80 -23.3%

Draw 21.6% 25.3% 3.95 -8.8%

Away win 35.7% 29.4% 3.40 +21.4%

Over 2.5 65.8% 75.2% 1.33 -12.5%

Over 3.5 45.5% 55.6% 1.80 -18.1%

BTTS 63.5% 76.9% 1.30 -17.4%

Home O1.5 59.5% 69.4% 1.44 -14.3%

Away O1.5 60.0% 51.3% 1.95 +17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 36% / xG 2.0-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.2%

#5 2–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Logan Lightning2.0

Holland Park H.2.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.00

HOLLAND PARK H. · PPG 1.40

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Logan Lightning (H) 42.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -23.3%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.8%

Holland Park H. (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Logan Lightning face Holland Park H. in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Logan Lightning a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Holland Park H. 36%, so Logan Lightning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Logan Lightning and 2.0 for Holland Park H. (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Logan Lightning are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Holland Park H.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +37.8%.

Logan Lightning vs Holland Park H. Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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