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S George Saints vs St George City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 08:30

S George Saints

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

St George City

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.9%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-112.9%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.4%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 44.4% 2.25 -0.8%

Draw 27.9% 29.9% 3.35 -3.9%

Away win 28.0% 35.1% 2.85 -12.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 57.8% 1.73 -20.1%

Over 3.5 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

BTTS 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Home O1.5 37.4% 50.0% 2.00 -25.2%

Away O1.5 22.4% 43.5% 2.30 -29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S George Saints1.3

St George City0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 1.29

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=44.1%

Win probability 1X2

S George Saints (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -0.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.9%

St George City (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

S George Saints face St George City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S George Saints a 44% chance, the draw 28% and St George City 28%, so S George Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for S George Saints and 0.9 for St George City (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S George Saints are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.33 for St George City. This match finished 0-1.

S George Saints vs St George City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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