Today / Australia - Queensland Premier League / Caboolture vs Capalaba

Caboolture vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 08:00

Caboolture

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Capalaba

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 89.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.4%1-13.1%1-22.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.6%2-15.8%2-23.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-17.3%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-014.7%4+-118.6%4+-211.8%4+-35.0%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.1% 78.1% 1.28 -16.7%

Draw 20.3% 17.9% 5.60 +8.2%

Away win 14.5% 14.3% 7.00 +0.9%

Over 2.5 80.0% 82.0% 1.22 -2.4%

Over 3.5 58.1% 65.4% 1.53 -11.1%

BTTS 63.4% 72.5% 1.38 -12.5%

Home O1.5 89.0% 85.5% 1.17 +4.1%

Away O1.5 36.1% 38.5% 2.60 -6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.4%

H 65% / xG 3.8-1.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 4–1 6.9%

#3 2–1✓ 5.8%

#4 3–0 5.8%

#5 4–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caboolture3.8

Capalaba1.3

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 58.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CABOOLTURE · PPG 1.33

CAPALABA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Caboolture (H) 65.1%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -16.7%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +8.2%

Capalaba (A) 14.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caboolture face Capalaba in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caboolture a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Capalaba 14%, so Caboolture are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Caboolture and 1.3 for Capalaba (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caboolture are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Capalaba. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Caboolture vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions