Today / South-Korea - K3 League / Changnyeong W vs Gyeongju W

Changnyeong W vs Gyeongju W Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 08:00

Changnyeong W

PPG 0.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gyeongju W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-113.4%0-27.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.9%2-16.7%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.2%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 29.4% 3.40 +9.5%

Draw 28.8% 29.9% 3.35 -2.1%

Away win 39.0% 52.6% 1.90 -25.9%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 27.7% 30.5% 3.28 -5.5%

BTTS 51.5% 58.8% 1.70 -12.4%

Home O1.5 26.5% 34.1% 2.93 -13.4%

Away O1.5 31.4% 49.5% 2.02 -36.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.5%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changnyeong W1.0

Gyeongju W1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGNYEONG W · PPG 0.00

GYEONGJU W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Changnyeong W (H) 32.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +9.5%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.1%

Gyeongju W (A) 39.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changnyeong W face Gyeongju W in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changnyeong W a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Gyeongju W 39%, so Gyeongju W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Changnyeong W and 1.1 for Gyeongju W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changnyeong W are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Gyeongju W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 2-2.