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Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Ulsan Citizen

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

UPCOMING

Gyeongju HNP

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-19.5%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.7%1-112.9%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.7%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-13.9%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 29.4% 3.40 +51.6%

Draw 26.4% 33.3% 3.00 -12.5%

Away win 29.1% 50.0% 2.00 -25.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.2% 3.42 -1.1%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 39.5% 33.4% 2.99 +18.1%

Away O1.5 31.3% 48.5% 2.06 -35.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan Citizen1.4

Gyeongju HNP1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN CITIZEN · PPG 1.27

GYEONGJU HNP · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan Citizen (H) 44.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +51.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.5%

Gyeongju HNP (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan Citizen face Gyeongju HNP in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan Citizen a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Gyeongju HNP 29%, so Ulsan Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ulsan Citizen and 1.0 for Gyeongju HNP (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan Citizen are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.00 for Gyeongju HNP. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +48.3%.

Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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