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Gangneung City vs Busan Transportation Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Gangneung City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

UPCOMING

Busan Transportation

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-113.5%0-29.6%0-34.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.2%2-15.9%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.3%3-11.8%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 34.7% 2.88 -8.7%

Draw 25.7% 36.4% 2.75 -17.6%

Away win 44.6% 41.7% 2.40 +7.0%

Over 2.5 50.8% 48.8% 2.05 +4.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.0% 3.85 +21.7%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 30.8% 35.2% 2.84 -12.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 39.4% 2.54 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangneung City0.9

Busan Transportation1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGNEUNG CITY · PPG 1.50

BUSAN TRANSPORTATION · PPG 1.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.48, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gangneung City (H) 29.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -17.6%

Busan Transportation (A) 44.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangneung City face Busan Transportation in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangneung City a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Busan Transportation 45%, so Busan Transportation are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gangneung City and 1.4 for Busan Transportation (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangneung City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.88 for Busan Transportation. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.7%.

Gangneung City vs Busan Transportation Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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