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Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 08:00

Yangpyeong

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDL

UPCOMING

Siheung Citizen

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-19.0%0-28.3%0-35.1%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.8%1-110.6%1-29.7%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.4%2-16.3%2-25.8%2-33.5%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 25.0% 4.00 +4.1%

Draw 23.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.9%

Away win 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Over 2.5 61.0% 48.8% 2.05 +25.1%

Over 3.5 38.6% 29.2% 3.42 +32.0%

BTTS 61.5% 54.1% 1.85 +13.8%

Home O1.5 33.0% 29.2% 3.42 +12.9%

Away O1.5 57.0% 52.1% 1.92 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.5%

A 50% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yangpyeong1.2

Siheung Citizen1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

YANGPYEONG · PPG 1.25

SIHEUNG CITIZEN · PPG 2.44

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

56%

DANGER

xG gap -0.66 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Yangpyeong (H) 26.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.9%

Siheung Citizen (A) 49.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yangpyeong face Siheung Citizen in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yangpyeong a 27% chance, the draw 23% and Siheung Citizen 50%, so Siheung Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Yangpyeong and 1.8 for Siheung Citizen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yangpyeong are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.44 for Siheung Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +33.4%.

Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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