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Mokpo City vs Chuncheon Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Mokpo City

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

UPCOMING

Chuncheon

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.9%0-26.4%0-33.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.8%1-111.1%1-29.0%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-17.7%2-26.3%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.2%3-13.6%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Draw 24.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Away win 44.9% 46.5% 2.15 -3.5%

Over 2.5 60.3% 52.6% 1.90 +14.6%

Over 3.5 37.3% 31.8% 3.14 +17.1%

BTTS 61.5% 58.8% 1.70 +4.5%

Home O1.5 39.7% 36.8% 2.72 +8.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 46.5% 2.15 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mokpo City1.4

Chuncheon1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MOKPO CITY · PPG 1.10

CHUNCHEON · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mokpo City (H) 31.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Chuncheon (A) 44.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mokpo City face Chuncheon in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mokpo City a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Chuncheon 45%, so Chuncheon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mokpo City and 1.6 for Chuncheon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mokpo City are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.78 for Chuncheon. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Mokpo City vs Chuncheon Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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