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Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:00

Changwon City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

UPCOMING

Daejeon Korail

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 50% chance

Model probability 49.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-114.0%0-27.5%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.6%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.1%2-16.5%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 35.7% 2.80 +0.5%

Draw 27.9% 34.5% 2.90 -11.5%

Away win 36.2% 43.5% 2.30 -16.7%

Over 2.5 44.5% 45.5% 2.20 -2.1%

Over 3.5 25.5% 27.2% 3.68 -3.7%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.2% 2.76 -15.0%

Away O1.5 32.5% 42.9% 2.33 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

A 36% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changwon City1.0

Daejeon Korail1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGWON CITY · PPG 1.50

DAEJEON KORAIL · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Changwon City (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +0.5%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.5%

Daejeon Korail (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changwon City face Daejeon Korail in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changwon City a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Daejeon Korail 36%, so Daejeon Korail are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Changwon City and 1.1 for Daejeon Korail (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changwon City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Daejeon Korail.

Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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