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Pocheon vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Pocheon

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

UPCOMING

Yeoju Sejong

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 64% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-15.6%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-110.3%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-15.9%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 71.4% 1.40 -23.3%

Draw 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

Away win 21.5% 14.3% 7.00 +30.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.6% 2.59 -18.2%

BTTS 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 67.1% 1.49 -16.9%

Away O1.5 19.7% 22.0% 4.55 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 65.8%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.6%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pocheon1.9

Yeoju Sejong0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

POCHEON · PPG 2.10

YEOJU SEJONG · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pocheon (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -23.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.5%

Yeoju Sejong (A) 21.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pocheon face Yeoju Sejong in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pocheon a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Yeoju Sejong 22%, so Pocheon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Pocheon and 0.8 for Yeoju Sejong (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pocheon are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.20 for Yeoju Sejong. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Pocheon vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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