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NWS Spirit vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-111.2%0-29.3%0-35.1%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.1%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.7%2-16.0%2-25.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 28.6% 3.50 +0.1%

Draw 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

Away win 45.8% 56.5% 1.77 -18.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.0% 1.45 -22.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% 45.5% 2.20 -29.2%

BTTS 55.3% 69.0% 1.45 -19.8%

Home O1.5 27.8% 43.5% 2.30 -21.6%

Away O1.5 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.3%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2✓ 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit1.0

APIA Leichhardt1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.50

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 28.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.4%

APIA Leichhardt (A) 45.8%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face APIA Leichhardt in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 29% chance, the draw 26% and APIA Leichhardt 46%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for NWS Spirit and 1.7 for APIA Leichhardt (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.57 for APIA Leichhardt. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-2.

NWS Spirit vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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