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Subiaco vs Nedlands Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Subiaco

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Nedlands

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 77.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.2%0-24.5%0-34.2%0-4+5.8%1 1-01.9%1-15.3%1-27.5%1-37.0%1-4+9.7%2 2-01.6%2-14.5%2-26.3%2-35.8%2-4+8.1%3 3-00.9%3-12.5%3-23.5%3-33.3%3-4+4.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.5%4+-22.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 23.8% 4.20 +6.0%

Draw 19.9% 25.0% 4.00 -12.2%

Away win 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 2.5 72.7% 71.4% 1.40 +1.8%

Over 3.5 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

BTTS 64.9% 69.4% 1.44 -6.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 39.4% 2.54 +26.8%

Away O1.5 77.0% 71.9% 1.39 +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob64.9%

A 54% / xG 1.7-2.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 1–1 5.3%

#5 2–3✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Subiaco1.7

Nedlands2.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUBIACO · PPG 0.75

NEDLANDS · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Subiaco (H) 26.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.0%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.2%

Nedlands (A) 53.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Subiaco face Nedlands in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Subiaco a 26% chance, the draw 20% and Nedlands 54%, so Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Subiaco and 2.8 for Nedlands (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Subiaco are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.40 for Nedlands. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Subiaco vs Nedlands Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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