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Murdoch M. vs Kingsley Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Murdoch M.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kingsley

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.7%0-25.3%0-33.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.1%1-19.4%1-28.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.3%3-14.2%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

Draw 22.0% 29.4% 3.40 -15.1%

Away win 41.2% 40.0% 2.50 +3.0%

Over 2.5 65.3% 69.4% 1.44 -6.0%

Over 3.5 43.1% 48.1% 2.08 -10.3%

BTTS 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Home O1.5 48.5% 57.5% 1.74 -15.6%

Away O1.5 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Murdoch M.1.6

Kingsley1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MURDOCH M. · PPG 1.33

KINGSLEY · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Murdoch M. (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -19.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.1%

Kingsley (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Murdoch M. face Kingsley in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Murdoch M. a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Kingsley 41%, so Kingsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Murdoch M. and 1.8 for Kingsley (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Murdoch M. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Kingsley. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Murdoch M. vs Kingsley Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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