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Mandurah City vs Floreat Athena Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Mandurah City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Floreat Athena

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.4%0-27.4%0-35.0%0-4+3.9%1 1-04.8%1-19.6%1-29.6%1-36.4%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.1%2-16.2%2-26.2%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.7%3-22.7%3-31.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 26.3% 3.80 +6.1%

Draw 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Away win 47.5% 57.8% 1.73 -17.8%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.4% 1.44 -7.7%

Over 3.5 40.8% 49.5% 2.02 -17.6%

BTTS 61.0% 71.4% 1.40 -14.6%

Home O1.5 37.1% 42.6% 2.35 -12.8%

Away O1.5 59.5% 67.1% 1.49 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.0%

A 48% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mandurah City1.3

Floreat Athena2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MANDURAH CITY · PPG 1.50

FLOREAT ATHENA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Mandurah City (H) 29.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

Floreat Athena (A) 47.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mandurah City face Floreat Athena in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mandurah City a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Floreat Athena 48%, so Floreat Athena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mandurah City and 2.0 for Floreat Athena (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mandurah City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Floreat Athena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Mandurah City vs Floreat Athena Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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