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Sydney Olympic vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

SD Raiders

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.8%0-25.6%0-33.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.7%1-19.1%1-28.8%1-35.7%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-26.9%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.8%3-23.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-22.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 33.3% 3.00 +6.2%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 42.3% 50.0% 2.00 -15.4%

Over 2.5 64.1% 63.7% 1.57 +0.6%

Over 3.5 40.5% 40.8% 2.45 -0.8%

BTTS 62.7% 66.7% 1.50 -5.9%

Home O1.5 46.7% 44.4% 2.25 +5.1%

Away O1.5 57.5% 57.1% 1.75 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.7%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Olympic1.6

SD Raiders1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.50

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Olympic (H) 35.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +6.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

SD Raiders (A) 42.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Olympic face SD Raiders in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Olympic a 35% chance, the draw 22% and SD Raiders 42%, so SD Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sydney Olympic and 1.9 for SD Raiders (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Olympic are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.17 for SD Raiders. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Sydney Olympic vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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