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Manly Utd vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Manly Utd

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Blacktown City

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.5%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.5%1-111.8%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.2%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.8%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 47.6% 2.10 -4.2%

Draw 25.8% 28.6% 3.50 -5.8%

Away win 28.7% 34.5% 2.90 -10.1%

Over 2.5 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Over 3.5 35.7% 33.9% 2.95 +5.3%

BTTS 55.3% 61.7% 1.62 -10.4%

Home O1.5 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Away O1.5 35.0% 40.8% 2.45 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0✓ 6.1%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly Utd1.6

Blacktown City1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UTD · PPG 1.57

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Manly Utd (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.2%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.8%

Blacktown City (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly Utd face Blacktown City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly Utd a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Blacktown City 29%, so Manly Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Manly Utd and 1.2 for Blacktown City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly Utd are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.88 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Manly Utd vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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