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UNSW vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 05:00

UNSW

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-111.6%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.3%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.7%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.0%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 41.7% 2.40 -0.4%

Draw 30.5% 29.4% 3.40 +3.7%

Away win 27.9% 38.5% 2.60 -16.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 57.8% 1.73 -20.1%

Over 3.5 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

BTTS 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Home O1.5 32.0% 47.6% 2.10 -32.8%

Away O1.5 26.6% 45.5% 2.20 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0✓ 13.3%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.2

Wollongong W.1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 2.00

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -0.4%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +3.7%

Wollongong W. (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Wollongong W. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Wollongong W. 28%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UNSW and 1.0 for Wollongong W. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.89 for Wollongong W.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 1-0.

UNSW vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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