Today / VFK vs Grebbestad

VFK vs Grebbestad Prediction

Friday, May 29, 2026

VFK

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Grebbestad

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=46.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.0%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.6%1-111.5%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 28.5% — — —

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 36.2% — — —

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 49.0% — — —

Away O1.5 33.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VFK1.6

Grebbestad1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VFK · PPG 2.25

GREBBESTAD · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=46.0%

Win probability 1X2

VFK (H) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Grebbestad (A) 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

VFK face Grebbestad on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VFK a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Grebbestad 28%, so VFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for VFK and 1.2 for Grebbestad (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VFK are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Grebbestad. This match finished 2-3.

VFK vs Grebbestad Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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