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West Torrens vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 10:30

West Torrens

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.0%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.3%1-17.5%1-23.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-19.4%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.9%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-19.0%4+-24.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 63.7% 1.57 -12.7%

Draw 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -9.6%

Away win 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.0%

Over 2.5 64.7% 69.4% 1.44 -6.8%

Over 3.5 43.1% 48.8% 2.05 -11.7%

BTTS 61.0% 66.7% 1.50 -8.5%

Home O1.5 71.5% 66.7% 1.50 +7.2%

Away O1.5 27.4% 38.2% 2.62 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.0%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.2%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Torrens2.5

Adelaide Comets1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST TORRENS · PPG 2.20

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=55.6%

Win probability 1X2

West Torrens (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -12.7%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.6%

Adelaide Comets (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Torrens face Adelaide Comets in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Torrens a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Adelaide Comets 23%, so West Torrens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for West Torrens and 1.0 for Adelaide Comets (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Torrens are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.40 for Adelaide Comets. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 4-1.

West Torrens vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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