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Heidelberg Utd vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 09:30

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 1.83 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.2%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.3%1-110.2%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.4%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 71.4% 1.40 -21.3%

Draw 22.6% 23.8% 4.20 -3.0%

Away win 21.1% 14.8% 6.75 +25.5%

Over 2.5 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Over 3.5 36.2% 36.4% 2.75 -0.4%

BTTS 52.1% 54.6% 1.83 -4.7%

Home O1.5 58.0% 66.7% 1.50 -13.0%

Away O1.5 22.6% 23.8% 4.20 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg Utd1.9

Dandenong T.0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 1.83

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg Utd (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -21.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.0%

Dandenong T. (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg Utd face Dandenong T. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg Utd a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Dandenong T. 21%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Heidelberg Utd and 0.9 for Dandenong T. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg Utd are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.86 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.5%. This match finished 4-2.

Heidelberg Utd vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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