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Aragvi Dusheti vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 2.14 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Merani Martvili

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-115.1%0-28.4%0-33.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.3%2-15.9%2-23.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

Draw 33.3% 35.7% 2.80 -6.8%

Away win 35.6% 43.5% 2.30 -18.1%

Over 2.5 34.0% 42.6% 2.35 -20.1%

Over 3.5 18.6% 22.2% 4.50 -9.8%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 22.3% — — —

Away O1.5 30.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1✓ 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragvi Dusheti0.9

Merani Martvili1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 2.14

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Aragvi Dusheti (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.6%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -6.8%

Merani Martvili (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragvi Dusheti face Merani Martvili in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragvi Dusheti a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Merani Martvili 36%, so Merani Martvili are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Aragvi Dusheti and 1.1 for Merani Martvili (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragvi Dusheti are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.57 for Merani Martvili. This match finished 1-1.

Aragvi Dusheti vs Merani Martvili Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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