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Garliava vs Siauliai B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 16:30

Garliava

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Siauliai B

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.1%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.6%1-15.8%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-18.2%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-17.7%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.8%4+-110.7%4+-23.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.7% 83.3% 1.20 -17.6%

Draw 21.8% 16.7% 6.00 +18.5%

Away win 9.5% 11.1% 9.00 -8.7%

Over 2.5 65.1% 73.5% 1.36 -11.5%

Over 3.5 43.1% 54.3% 1.84 -20.7%

BTTS 51.7% 53.8% 1.86 -3.8%

Home O1.5 77.1% 82.0% 1.22 -5.9%

Away O1.5 14.9% 21.3% 4.70 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.7%

H 69% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 3–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 4–0 7.9%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Garliava2.8

Siauliai B0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GARLIAVA · PPG 2.20

SIAULIAI B · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Garliava (H) 68.7%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -17.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +18.5%

Siauliai B (A) 9.5%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Garliava face Siauliai B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Garliava a 69% chance, the draw 22% and Siauliai B 10%, so Garliava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Garliava and 0.7 for Siauliai B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Garliava are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.00 for Siauliai B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Garliava vs Siauliai B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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