Today / Newington vs HW Welders

Newington vs HW Welders Prediction

Promotion Group - 37 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Newington

PPG 2.06 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HW Welders

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.9%0-23.3%0-32.5%0-4+2.4%1 1-02.6%1-16.0%1-26.9%1-35.2%1-4+5.1%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.2%2-35.5%2-4+5.3%3 3-01.9%3-14.4%3-25.0%3-33.8%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.7%4+-24.2%4+-33.2%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% — — —

Draw 19.7% — — —

Away win 43.7% — — —

Over 2.5 81.1% — — —

Over 3.5 63.5% — — —

BTTS 78.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob78.7%

A 44% / xG 2.1-2.3 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–2 6.9%

#3 2–1 6.3%

#4 1–1 6.0%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newington2.1

HW Welders2.3

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.1% · O3.5 PROB 63.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWINGTON · PPG 2.06

HW WELDERS · PPG 1.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away GOOD (1.65)

Win probability 1X2

Newington (H) 36.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

HW Welders (A) 43.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newington face HW Welders on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newington a 37% chance, the draw 20% and HW Welders 44%, so HW Welders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Newington and 2.3 for HW Welders (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newington are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.65 for HW Welders. This match finished 2-4.

Newington vs HW Welders Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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