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Goa vs Mumbai City Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Goa

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Mumbai City

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.7%0-117.0%0-25.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-111.6%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.3%2-14.0%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.4%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

Draw 39.6% 32.3% 3.10 +22.8%

Away win 28.7% 37.7% 2.65 -23.9%

Over 2.5 14.8% 46.5% 2.15 -68.2%

Over 3.5 4.5% 25.6% 3.90 -82.5%

BTTS 23.4% 55.6% 1.80 -57.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob23.4%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 15% / NoBTTS 23%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.7%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 0–1 17.0%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 2–0✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goa0.7

Mumbai City0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 14.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GOA · PPG 1.75

MUMBAI CITY · PPG 2.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Goa (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.0%

Draw 39.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +22.8%

Mumbai City (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goa face Mumbai City in India - Indian Super League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goa a 32% chance, the draw 40% and Mumbai City 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Goa and 0.6 for Mumbai City (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 15% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 23% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goa are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.50 for Mumbai City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Goa vs Mumbai City Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions