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Naftan vs T. Zhodino Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 15:00

Naftan

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

T. Zhodino

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Away 65% chance

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-118.7%0-215.2%0-38.3%0-4+4.8%1 1-06.2%1-110.0%1-28.2%1-34.4%1-4+2.6%2 2-01.7%2-12.7%2-22.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.7% 20.0% 5.00 -18.9%

Draw 23.2% 26.3% 3.80 -7.1%

Away win 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.3% 1.84 -15.0%

Over 3.5 27.7% 33.4% 2.99 -10.3%

BTTS 45.5% 52.4% 1.91 -13.1%

Home O1.5 10.2% 24.1% 4.15 -34.6%

Away O1.5 48.4% 59.2% 1.69 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob45.5%

A 63% / xG 0.5-1.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.7%

#2 0–2 15.2%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 0–3 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naftan0.5

T. Zhodino1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFTAN · PPG 0.60

T. ZHODINO · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Naftan (H) 13.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -18.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.1%

T. Zhodino (A) 63.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naftan face T. Zhodino in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naftan a 14% chance, the draw 23% and T. Zhodino 63%, so T. Zhodino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Naftan and 1.6 for T. Zhodino (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naftan are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.67 for T. Zhodino. This match finished 0-4.

Naftan vs T. Zhodino Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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