Today / Brera Strumica vs Makedonija

Brera Strumica vs Makedonija Prediction

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Brera Strumica

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Makedonija

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.54)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.5%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.5%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 19.4% — — —

Over 2.5 55.4% — — —

Over 3.5 33.0% — — —

BTTS 53.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.7%

H 58% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.5%

#2 1–1 10.5%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brera Strumica1.9

Makedonija1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRERA STRUMICA · PPG 1.08

MAKEDONIJA · PPG 0.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.54)

Win probability 1X2

Brera Strumica (H) 58.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Makedonija (A) 19.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Brera Strumica face Makedonija on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brera Strumica a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Makedonija 19%, so Brera Strumica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Brera Strumica and 1.0 for Makedonija (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brera Strumica are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.54 for Makedonija.

Brera Strumica vs Makedonija Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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