Today / Bayern Hof vs Stadeln

Bayern Hof vs Stadeln Prediction

Bayern Nord - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Bayern Hof logo
Bayern Hof
PPG 1.46 · HOME
2 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Stadeln logo
Stadeln
PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.4%0-21.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.5%1-16.3%1-24.5%1-32.1%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.4%3-17.6%3-25.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-19.7%4+-26.8%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 64.4%
Draw 17.2%
Away win 18.4%
Over 2.5 77.5%
Over 3.5 58.5%
BTTS 70.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-0
xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob70.5%

H 64% / xG 2.7-1.4 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%
#2 3–1 7.6%
#3 1–1 6.3%
#4 2–0 6.0%
#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Hof2.7
Stadeln1.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.5% · O3.5 PROB 58.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN HOF · PPG 1.46

STADELN · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.46) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Hof (H) 64.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 17.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Stadeln (A) 18.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Hof face Stadeln on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Hof a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Stadeln 18%, so Bayern Hof are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Bayern Hof and 1.4 for Stadeln (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Hof are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.77 for Stadeln. This match finished 2-0.

PredictVantage

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