Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / S. Italiano vs SM Burzaco

S. Italiano vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 5 ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 18:30

S. Italiano

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

SM Burzaco

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-114.2%0-25.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.1%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.7%2-16.1%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.4%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 47.6% 2.10 -21.0%

Draw 35.3% 34.7% 2.88 +1.7%

Away win 27.0% 27.0% 3.70 -0.1%

Over 2.5 35.0% 35.1% 2.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 8.8% 16.7% 6.00 -28.3%

BTTS 46.2% 44.4% 2.25 +4.0%

Home O1.5 23.7% 37.7% 2.65 -22.3%

Away O1.5 18.7% 23.1% 4.33 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 0–1 14.2%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Italiano0.9

SM Burzaco0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.8%

Form & verdict PPG

S. ITALIANO · PPG 2.00

SM BURZACO · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

S. Italiano (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.0%

Draw 35.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +1.7%

SM Burzaco (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Italiano face SM Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Italiano a 38% chance, the draw 35% and SM Burzaco 27%, so S. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for S. Italiano and 0.8 for SM Burzaco (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Italiano are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for SM Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-2.

S. Italiano vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions