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Defensores U. vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 5 ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 18:30

Defensores U.

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Villa Dalmine

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-121.4%0-212.6%0-34.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.6%1-111.3%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-02.5%2-13.0%2-21.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.4%3-10.5%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.4% 27.8% 3.60 -26.7%

Draw 36.6% 35.1% 2.85 +4.3%

Away win 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 33.9% 2.95 +3.3%

Over 3.5 9.3% 16.7% 6.00 -26.5%

BTTS 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Home O1.5 9.9% 23.1% 4.33 -34.3%

Away O1.5 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.2%

A 48% / xG 0.5-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.2%

#2 0–1 21.4%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 0–2 12.6%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores U.0.5

Villa Dalmine1.2

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES U. · PPG 1.63

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Defensores U. (H) 15.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -26.7%

Draw 36.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +4.3%

Villa Dalmine (A) 48.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores U. face Villa Dalmine in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores U. a 15% chance, the draw 37% and Villa Dalmine 48%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Defensores U. and 1.2 for Villa Dalmine (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores U. are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 2.50 for Villa Dalmine. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Defensores U. vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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