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A. Quilmes vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 18:30

A. Quilmes

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Excursionistas

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-119.5%0-210.5%0-33.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.5%1-112.3%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-03.6%2-13.9%2-22.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.8%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 36.4% 2.75 -21.2%

Draw 34.0% 33.9% 2.95 +0.3%

Away win 42.5% 40.0% 2.50 +6.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

Over 3.5 9.0% 20.0% 5.00 -33.0%

BTTS 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Home O1.5 13.2% 32.3% 3.10 -35.4%

Away O1.5 29.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.2%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.2%

#2 0–1 19.5%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–0 11.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Quilmes0.6

Excursionistas1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.0%

Form & verdict PPG

A. QUILMES · PPG 1.13

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

46%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

A. Quilmes (H) 23.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.2%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +0.3%

Excursionistas (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Quilmes face Excursionistas in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Quilmes a 24% chance, the draw 34% and Excursionistas 43%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for A. Quilmes and 1.1 for Excursionistas (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Quilmes are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.75 for Excursionistas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 2-2.

A. Quilmes vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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